part 8 of 10 of the Thriving in Uncertainty Series
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Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Adapt or Perish: The Power of Quick Thinking in Crisis
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” – Mike Tyson
In the summer of 1949, lightning struck the forests of Mann Gulch, Montana, igniting a fire that would test the limits of human endurance and decision-making. Sixteen firefighters parachuted in, prepared to control the blaze. But what started as a manageable fire soon turned into a deadly inferno, as hot, dry winds whipped it into an uncontrollable force. Within minutes, the fire had blocked the crew’s only route to safety. Time was running out.
The leader of the group, Wagner Dodge, knew they were in a race against time. He realized the fire was moving faster than anyone could outrun it, and the team was panicking. With only seconds to decide, Dodge did something no one had ever done before: he set an escape fire. He set fire to the surrounding grass, creating a patch of burnt land where the fire would have no fuel. As the flames closed in, Dodge lay down in the smoldering remains of his fire, allowing the inferno to pass around him.
The rest of the team, seeing no other option, tried to outrun the flames. But nature had other plans. Dodge and one other firefighter were the only survivors of Mann Gulch. Dodge’s quick thinking, informed by years of experience, saved his life. His team, lacking his training and insight, couldn’t adapt in time.
Adaptation in Crisis
Wagner Dodge’s story is more than a tale of survival; it’s a lesson in adaptability. Until that moment, escape fires had never been used. Dodge’s experience and training enabled him to adapt his actions to the new, terrifying reality he faced. This approach is what psychologist Gary Klein calls “naturalistic decision-making,” the ability to apply what you know in unfamiliar, high-pressure situations.
Klein’s research into emergency personnel—firefighters, paramedics, soldiers—shows that in life-and-death moments, these professionals don’t follow rigid plans. Instead, they assess what they know, recognize what they don’t, and adapt on the fly. This is exactly what Dodge did at Mann Gulch: he took what he understood about fire behavior and created a solution in the moment. His ability to pivot wasn’t just clever—it was the difference between life and death.
For financial advisors and business leaders, this uncertainty isn’t a distant concept—it’s a daily reality. The markets shift, clients’ needs change, and the economy evolves in ways that no one can fully predict. But it’s also an opportunity. We can’t control uncertainty, but we can control how we respond to it.
In my experience as a young investment banker in London in 1998, I worked with Ray, a former WorldCom executive. Ray was brilliant and saw skyrocketing demand for bandwidth due to new market entrants. He saw an opportunity to buy bandwidth wholesale from government monopolies and sell it retail, leading the business planning for a startup he valued at $50 million. But Ray’s rigidity was his downfall. Despite our efforts to manage his expectations, Ray turned down a $30 million offer from a leading VC firm. His refusal to adapt cost him the opportunity to launch his business.
In contrast, Carl, a fintech founder I advised, faced a similar challenge years later when interest rates soared and fintech valuations plummeted. Instead of digging in, Carl pivoted his business, offering new services that weren’t his original focus but helped him survive. His startup is still alive today.
The lesson is clear: The world will not unfold according to your model or your desires. This is a truth echoed in Stoic philosophy, where thinkers like Epictetus and Marcus Aurelius advised focusing on what is within our control and accepting the unpredictability of life. Epictetus famously said, “It is not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.” For financial advisors and business leaders, this reaction is critical. When the market shifts, clients change direction, or economic conditions deteriorate, sticking to a fixed plan is a recipe for failure. As Seneca advised, “We suffer more in imagination than in reality.” In reality, adaptation can create new paths forward.
Rod Stewart: A Rising Footballer Who Pivoted to Stardom
Rod Stewart wasn’t always destined to be a rock star. In fact, his early passion was football. As a young boy growing up in North London, Rod showed immense promise as a footballer. He dreamed of playing for the big leagues and even had a brief stint with Brentford Football Club. But life had other plans for Rod.
At the age of 17, an injury derailed his budding football career. His dreams of playing professionally vanished overnight. This was his “punched in the mouth” moment—the moment when the path he had so carefully charted was suddenly blocked.
Rod could have wallowed in disappointment, but instead, he did what the best do: he adapted. He turned his attention to another passion—music. In the early 1960s, Rod immersed himself in London’s vibrant music scene. He honed his craft, jumped from one small gig to another, and eventually caught his big break when he joined The Jeff Beck Group. It wasn’t long before he transformed from an aspiring footballer to a global rock sensation.Rod’s story is a reminder: when one dream falls apart, another can emerge. The key to success lies in adapting to circumstances, finding new paths, and remaining relentless in the pursuit of excellence, no matter the field.
Nokia: From Timber to Telecom to Technological Obsolescence
Nokia’s journey is a fascinating study in adaptation. The company began in 1865 as a small paper mill in Finland, far from the tech powerhouse it would eventually become. By the early 1900s, Nokia had expanded into rubber, cables, and eventually electronics. In the 1980s, Nokia took a massive leap by entering the telecommunications market, producing the world’s first car phone in 1982.
But Nokia’s greatest adaptation came in the early 1990s when they embraced the GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) standard. At a time when the telecommunications world was fragmented, Nokia saw the potential of the emerging GSM technology, which allowed phones to work across different networks globally. They shifted resources, focused on building high-quality mobile devices, and by the late 1990s, Nokia dominated the global mobile phone market, with their signature ringtone becoming a cultural phenomenon. The company became a case study in how pivoting towards new opportunities can create unmatched success.
But success, as we know, can breed complacency. When Apple released the iPhone in 2007, the mobile world shifted once again—this time towards smartphones and app ecosystems. Nokia, the titan of mobile phones, failed to adapt to this new paradigm. Stuck in their feature-phone mindset, they underestimated the importance of user experience, touchscreens, and third-party app development.
By the time Nokia finally attempted to pivot towards smartphones with its late partnership with Microsoft, it was too late. Apple and Samsung had already captured the market. In 2014, Nokia sold its mobile phone division to Microsoft, marking the end of an era.Nokia’s story underscores an essential truth: even the most successful companies and individuals must continually adapt. Winning in one arena doesn’t guarantee future success, especially when the world is changing rapidly. The people and companies that thrive—like Rod Stewart shifting from football to music—are the ones that embrace change early, even when it’s uncomfortable.
Adapting in Business: Actionable Insights
- Stay Goal-Oriented, but Be Flexible in Execution: As Tyson’s quote highlights, you will face unexpected challenges. The goal remains, but the path may change. Advisors must teach their clients to remain focused on long-term objectives but adapt their strategies to short-term realities, just like a GPS recalibrating a route when the road ahead is closed.
- Implement a Resilient Process: Successful leaders are defined by their process, not just their outcomes. Whether it’s Warren Buffett in investing or Patrick Mahomes in football, a solid process enables resilience. Buffett often emphasizes that even great investors face losses; it’s how they adapt that sets them apart. A well-structured process includes regular evaluation, learning from past outcomes, and adjusting the approach to meet evolving circumstances.
- Train Yourself and Your Team for Adversity: Just as athletes improve their game by focusing on weaknesses, business leaders must instill a culture of continuous improvement. When things don’t go according to plan, take the time to reassess and retrain. The founder of Bridgewater, Ray Dalio, advocates for “radical transparency” and learning from mistakes to continually adapt and evolve—principles that resonate deeply with the Stoic belief in self-improvement.
- Accept What You Can’t Control—Master What You Can: The Stoics believed that external events were beyond our control, but our reactions were not. This wisdom is crucial for business leaders. Ray, my client, couldn’t control the VCs’ valuation of his business, but he could have adapted to their feedback. Carl understood that although interest rates were out of his control, his flexibility in offering new services gave him a lifeline.
In the end, the key to navigating unfolding events is to embrace the uncertainty and be ready to pivot. Like Wagner Dodge, who was forced to abandon his Plan A and Plan B, financial advisors and business leaders must remain flexible and disciplined. As we face inevitable setbacks, the process of adaptation is what keeps us in the game.
The Resilient Response: Rise, Adapt, and Succeed
We often face the “punch in the mouth” that Mike Tyson describes. The secret is not avoiding it, but responding to it. Successful leaders and advisors are those who stand back up, adapt, and find new paths to success.
🔄 What has been your most significant pivot?
Next Edition
In the upcoming post, we’ll discuss Choose—the importance of valuing time and the present moment.
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